Monday, April 27, 2009

Black Hole: Nobody knows how much oil Nigeria sells

As they have done every day for the past 50 years, oil tankers steamed away from Nigeria's coast yesterday loaded with hundreds of thousands of barrels of crude, from which Nigeria gets most of its income.
But the Nigerian government cannot say exactly how much oil is being lifted from the country, mostly by Shell, Mobil, Chevron, Total, Agip and a few others.
Instead, the government of Umaru Yar'Adua, like all others before it, relies almost entirely on whatever the oil companies tell them.
The situation is such that, if Mobil, for example, declares that it lifted 50,000 barrels of oil yesterday, the government just has to take their word for it.
Worse still, Nigeria's political leaders and top bureaucrats for decades have not shown the slightest interest in finding out. In a notoriously corrupt industry, which has spawn scandals such as the on-going Halliburton case, roping in the top echelon of the political class, it is very convenient to keep everything vague.
Add to this the increased crude oil theft or illegal bunkering in the Delta region described by President Umaru Yar'Adua in July 2008 as fuelling a trade in 'blood oil', which is run by powerful cartels and the figures officially quoted become increasingly weightless.
Obscurity
Even a cursory check by NEXT has revealed that various agencies of our government give conflicting figures of how much oil we produce and sell.
The Central Bank, the Ministry of Finance, the Department of Petroleum Resources, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) cannot agree on exactly what the numbers are.
So they have come up with an ingenious solution: they simply 'average' the various figures and let sleeping dogs lie.
Among Nigeria's most significant oil ministers over the past several decades are the former president, Olusegun Obasanjo, who for several years served as his own oil minister.
And the current oil minister, Rilwanu Lukman, has been in and out of the same job so many times that he has become nearly synonymous with the portfolio.
If either of these two gentlemen, or any of their predecessors, ever was troubled by this shabby state of affairs, which almost certainly guarantees large scale theft of our resources, it is unknown to an unsuspecting public.
A brick wall
For several days, we tried to reach the minister of state for petroleum, Odein Ajumogobia, but each time he promised to get back to us but never did.
The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, our state oil company which enters into joint ventures with the oil multinationals, even goes so far as to say on its website that it cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of the sales figures it publishes.
The Central Bank, which receives the money on behalf of the Nigerian people, also would say nothing regarding the veracity of these numbers.
The Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR), the industry regulator, makes the astonishing claim that it does not know the figures.
After more than two weeks of constant calls, text messages and email, the department's acting director, Billy Agha, informed us through a spokesman that "we only corroborate what NNPC gives to us."
Oil revenues account for more than 90 percent of our foreign exchange earnings and more than 80 percent of total revenue.
How much of it we get directly affects our ability to pave our roads, care for our infirm, secure our neighbourhoods and educate our children.
The politics of numbers
The mystery surrounding a simple issue of accounting for oil revenue has proved impervious to changes in administrations, political parties, elected governments or military dictatorships.
Last month, the news agency Reuters quoted Mr. Lukman as putting our daily oil production at about 2 million barrels per day. But Mansur Muhtar, the minister of finance, has quoted an average of 1.6 million barrels per day, which according to him, is "significantly lower than government projections."
Last week, Mr. Ajumogobia put the production figure at 2.1 million. Even if Nigerian citizens are to be deceived, government officials should at least agree on a particular figure, and all of these announced figures are at variance with data supplied to the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, the cartel that caps how much oil each of its members is expected to produce.
Nigeria has come a long way from producing about 500 barrels per day following the discovery at Oloibiri in 1958, but the oil majors that have been instrumental since that time, were understandably reluctant to talk to us last week. The current method of accounting seemingly works as well for them as it does for the public officials in charge who have maintained it.
NNPC's Disclaimer
Even the figures quoted in the NNPC's latest Annual Statistical Bulletin (2007) posted on its website, had a caveat; "The publications in this section present information on the oil and gas industry. Its content reflects individual as well as general analysis and trend of activities that characterised the industry within the country.
"Although NNPC endeavours to ensure accuracy of information in these documents, it cannot guarantee 100 percent accuracy nor can it be held liable for errors that may occur. Users are to note that use of any information herein is purely at their discretion."
In their defence, some in the industry say they have technical challenges that make it difficult to collate accurate figures. "Production figures are voluminous. If someone is sitting down and doing the stuff manually, the person will be confused," said a key industry executive.
"They should have a spreadsheet such that as the figures come in they are being recorded automatically. For them to come up with a compilation that is accurate, they need to have adequate data management, which they do not have, as is the case in all government establishments."
As a result, while some base their estimates on the volumes arriving at terminals and off-take points, others are based on volumes from oil wells and flow stations. These were responsible for the disparity in the NEITI's Audit of 1999-2004.
Oil workers don't know
Even oil industry workers don't have a clue. Peter Esele, former president of the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association, says, "Whatever information that is gotten from the NNPC is from the producers.
"One thing is clear, DPR does not even have the capacity to undergo or even know the quantity of crude. They don't have a meter, they don't have a measuring meter. Now, if you go to NNPC, the figure is different, DPR's is different, producers' different, CBN is different. So you cannot really reconcile all this." Esele for a time had served in NEITI.
Peter Akpatason, president National Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers, said: "Officially we don't know. But we have access to the information each time we want to get them.
"But, it is not as if on daily basis, we get the figures. I'm sure you know that there is always discrepancy of some sort between what NNPC declares and what DPR declares.
"What somebody explained to us in DPR is that NNPC figure is taken at the point of production while DPR take theirs at the terminal."
For Mr. Akpatason, the reason for these discrepancies is because, "The case of oil production is like any other developmental issue in Nigeria. The government has always shown ineptitude in handling very serious economic issues in this country.
And for us, we believe that this is a mark of poor leadership. Because, there is no reason why a country cannot say specifically that this is the quantity of goods and services that are produced and this is the naira value of such goods and services."
Cut-backs, shut-ins and oil theft
Some international energy industry watchers and agencies believe that keeping the numbers vague is deliberate. For instance, some allude to Nigeria's tendency, like all other members, to exceed OPEC's quota. Last September, OPEC agreed to cut output by 4.2 million barrels.
For Nigeria, this implies a cut-back of 320,000 to keep output at 1.67 million barrels effective from January 1. However trading sources say that Nigeria's export levels for May are expected to average 1.81 million barrels - to the extent that anyone really knows.
The unrest in the Niger Delta also is having a significant impact. According to oil companies and trading sources, Nigeria has shut-in or lost about 606,500 barrels due to sabotage to oil facilities, representing about 20 percent of the nation's installed output capacity of around 3 million barrels per day.
Whatever the figures are, the reality remains that the new production targets of 4 million barrels and 40 billion reserves will not be achieved next year, according to Victor Agbe-Davis, president of the Nigerian Association of Petroleum Explorationists.
"Right now, we have challenges in the Niger Delta that is one big factor, and government is trying to solve the problem. For any exploration and production company to survive, you need to grow your reserves, but the challenge is that the areas where these fields are, are insecure because someone can just go and cut the pipelines and you're forced to shut-in some fields.
By the time this is done, you are reducing contribution. So it is not easy to ramp up production without adequate infrastructure and security," he said.

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Deregulation: A blessing for private refineries?

Genuine investors in private refineries may be up for a time of their lives if the federal government is committed to see through its decision to fully open up the downstream sector of the petroleum industry.
On the 27th of February, the federal government announced proposed a complete deregulation of the downstream sector of the petroleum industry. The pronouncement wasn’t devoid of any of the talking points- national debates and resistance from labour and the civil society- that usually trail similar attempts in the past by government to open up the sector.
While many disagree with the new policy, this is perhaps, the best opportunity for investors to set up private refineries to meet the ever increasing domestic demand of refined petroleum products. Off-course, if government will follow through with the policy and not bulk under the pressure from labour and other vested interest groups.
Part of government’s argument is that maintaining the refineries have become unbearable. Rilwan Lukman, energy minister, remarked that “"We [government] are not ready to put any money into the refineries again, No more. Our refineries have not been well run in the past. They have been mismanaged and the problem was compounded by the regulatory agencies and that is why we want to address the issue.”
“If we have the correct ambience, people will come to build new refineries."
Diran Fawibe, the Chief Executive of International Energy Service, revealed that if the policy is fully implemented, “private refineries will have a place under a deregulated downstream sector. In fact, one of the major constraints against the establishment of private refineries is the fact that the downstream sector wasn’t deregulated.”
Energy experts had often argued that government’s regulation of the sector was the major impediment that deterred the establishment of private refineries.
Mr Fawibe puts a little perspective on the issue, adding that “in a situation where you’re refining products and the price is fixed, probably at a level that you not be able to recover your cost, it makes prospective private refiners agitated and they’re not too sure whether the environment is conducive.”
He agreed that funding might be a concern but he argues that “though Nigerians might not be able to put down the money, they will depend largely on foreign investors.”
Mr Fawibe added that “the investors that will put down the money have to be comfortable with the enabling environment, and of course, the guarantee that if they set up refineries they will get crude supply.”
In 2004, the Department of Petroleum Resources, the industry regulator, licensed some private refiners but “in March 2007, government cancelled all licenses issued to those who could not actualise the objective for the award of the licenses” said Adeleke Oladele, Head, Pipelines, Plants and Installations of the regulatory agency.
Currently, Amakpe International Refineries Nigeria Limited, Resource Refinery Limited, and Rehoboth Refinery Limited are at various approval stages.
Some of the stipulated guidelines for setting up private refineries include “payment of statutory application fees of US$50,000, DPR Service charge of N500, 000, and a refundable deposit of US $1 million for every 10,000 bpsd refinery capacity.”
“Refund is subject to adherence to project execution schedule within the first eighteen months and achievement of 70% detailed engineering otherwise the sum deposited is forfeited to government.”
Amakpe refinery is at the fore; having crossed the 70 percent detailed engineering benchmark which qualifies it for the $1 million refund.
Paul Osu, spokesperson for DPR, told NEXT that “the [Energy] minister has approved the refund and has sent it to the AGF [Accountant General of the Federation].”
However industry experts say the guidelines are too steep and ambiguous in some areas, and this might put investors off.
But Mr Oladele explained the rationale behind the guidelines say; “when the programme started in 1996, crude oil allocation was part of the incentives. But we found out that the people abandoned the refinery project in favour of the crude oil. That was why there was the resistant that we will not give crude to anybody to build refinery. You build first, and then we give the crude oil.”
According to him, “Amakpe will focus more on AGO, kerosene, and fuel because of the size of the plant. It will be coming up between the first and second quarter of the year.”
Experts say that government needs to provide more incentives to encourage investors into the refining business. Albeit, potentially the future appears bright for private refineries but with governments chronic history of policy reversals, sceptics argue that the road to establishing these refineries remain long and treacherous.

Thursday, March 5, 2009

Yar'Adua fires power company boss

President Umaru Yar'Adua on Tuesday in Abuja fired the Executive Vice Chairman of the Power Holding Company of Nigeria [PHCN] Bello Suleiman, saying he was a cog in the wheel of the administration's ambition to generate 6000 megawatts of power for the nation's use by December this year.
Inside sources, however, said in Abuja on Tuesday night that Suleiman actually resigned citing frustration from top power players around the president who he accused of eyeing personal advantage to the detriment of the nation's energy needs. Also removed were two executive directors, Isiaka Abdul Razak [Finance and Administration] and Simon Atakulu [Operations].
A statement on Tuesday by the Minister of Power, Lanre Babalola, said the removal of Suleiman and the two directors was to enable the federal government "achieve the goal of providing better electricity supply to Nigerians through the attainment of 6,000 and 10,000 megawatts of electricity by December 2009 and 2010 respectively."
According to the statement, Husein Labo replaces Suleiman. Pius Apuye was named as Razak's successor and John Ayodele as the replacement for Atakulu. As the chief executive officer, Bello Suleiman headed the Executive Management Team [EMT] of the power company.
Some of the other members of the board are Joseph Makoju, Adviser to the president on power generation, and Irene Chigbue, Director Bureau of Public Enterprise.
With Suleiman's ouster, the new Labo-team was charged with shepherding the power company towards Yar'Adua's dream of doubling Nigeria's power generating capacity by the end of the year and further raising that to 11,000 megawatts ahead of the 2011 election year.
The current national capacity is about 3200 megawatts, an appalling index compared to South Africa, a country of about 44 million people, which currently generates 45,000 megawatts of electricity.
Energy experts received yesterday's news with concern noting that the government's plan to double power production by December hasn't even taken off because pre-qualification of tenders to build power transmitting lines and transformers were only advertised on 23 February 2009.
"This, I beg to suggest, doesn't make any sense and is clearly a pipe dream" said a company insider who sought anonymity. In the new dispensation, Mr. Labo, an engineer and old hand at the power company, takes the reins of power as chief executive officer, while John Ayodele, an engineer and erstwhile operations chief who was fired by the last minister, but later surfaced as special adviser to the new minister of energy.
Mr. Bello is a 1975 graduate of the Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria with a first degree in Engineering. He also attended the University of Birmingham in the United Kingdom, where he obtained a Master of Science degree in industrial management in 1977.
Bello Suleiman is a Hausa-Fulani from Sokoto State.

Thursday, February 12, 2009

Intercontinental Bank pulls the plug on $200Million loan default

Intercontinental bank Plc, which doled out $200 million in credit support to Ascot Offshore Nigeria Limited two years ago to buy-out controlling equity in the Nigerian operations of American oil services company, Willbros Nigeria Limited, is calling for the repayment of the debt.
Industry sources, who sought anonymity, revealed that the Bank felt pressed to pull the plugs because of the liquidity problems prevailing in the banking system and the inability of Ascot Offshore Nigeria Limited to meet its obligations to the bank.
Officials of both Ascot Offshore Nigeria, and Intercontinental Bank Plc, were reluctant to comment on the issue on Thursday. Emeka Anaeto, Public Affairs Manager at Intercontinental Bank, playing down the issue said: "There is no need for all that [media concern] because our money is being recovered fully."
However, repeated calls and text messages to Joe Obue, Chief Executive of Ascot received no responses. Neither were calls to Henry Imaseka, Chairman of Ascot Offshore Nigeria, answered.
Although Intercontinental Bank Plc tried to douse any imputation of corporate bad blood between the two organisations, information available shows that Ascot Offshore is now effectively under receivership, as a result of a legal process initiated by Intercontinental Bank. Mr. Kunle Ogunba, a legal practitioner, has been named the receiver manager.
Emeka Anaeto, in the language of corporate-speak, says the bank's relationship with Ascot is still "business as usual, [and that] as at now, there's no problem between us" but informed sources revealed that Mr. Ogunba has already moved in to secure the assets of Ascot Offshore in a bid to recover the outstanding balance on the loan
Mr. Ogunba, was a bit coy when he spoke to Next on Sunday, saying : "We [Intercontinental Bank] don't want the matter in the press for now" adding, "I don't want to be seen as if I'm the one cultivating the press."
The 2007 Ascot purchase put Intercontinental Bank in an awkward position with the Economic and Financial Crime Commission, who asked why the loan was secured with 16 million units of Delta State's shares in Celtel [now Zain] and 54 Million shares of Hernderson African Investment Ltd in Union Bank.
Mr.Imaseka who owns about 90 per cent of the shares in Ascot, is a close business associate of James Ibori, the former Delta State governor. While Joe Obue,was Mr. Ibori's mate at the University of Benin. It is believed that Mr. imasekha is just a front for James Ibori.
Prior to the Ascot purchase, Willbros was actively engaged in the nation's oil and gas sector for 46 years. However, its American parent company, Willbros Group Inc, closed its operations in Nigeria in 2007. The company's reputation was damaged in a $6 million bribery scandal which implicated senior Willbros Nigeria executives and high-ranking officials of the Federal Government. Willbros Group was both indicted and fined heavily in the US for bribery.

Friday, January 16, 2009

Barkindo Named New NNPC Group MD

Major oil industry changes were announced today as President Umar Musa Yar’dua picked the Coordinator of Special Duties at the NNPC to replace Abubakar Yaradua as Group Managing Director.
Mohammed Barkindo was at the Presidential Villa in Abuja this afternoon to receive briefings regarding his new appointment.
His position as the Coordinator, Special Duties, at the NNPC was equivalent to a Group Executive Director.
The NNPC management structure comprises of a group managing director and six group executive directors, heading Exploration & Production, Refineries & Petrochemicals, Finance & Accounts, and Corporate Services. The others are Commercial & Investment, and Engineering & Technology.
Mr. Barkindo, a political scientist, was a former Head of the London office of the NNPC: A former Deputy Managing Director at the Nigerian Liquefied Natural Gas who also acted as the Secretary General of OPEC. He was a former Managing Director of Hyson and Carlson, a joint venture between Vitol and the NNPC, which lifts more than a quarter million barrels per day of Nigeria’s crude oil.
In what looks like a re-organization in Nigeria’s Oil and Gas sector, Mr. Barkindo’s elevation coincides with the retirement of Abubakar Yaradua, the hitherto Group Managing Director and Sena Anthony, Group Legal Adviser.
NNPC insiders believe this is the beginning of the much anticipated shake-up in the industry as the Mr. Yar’dua moves to implement the programme to unbundle the oil giant.
The core of the reform is expected to be the creation of independent, profit-driven state oil and gas institutes made up of a national oil company, and divide into a National Petroleum Asset Management Agency, a Nigerian Petroleum Directorate and a Nigerian Petroleum Inspectorate.
Mohammed Sanusi Barkindo hails from Yola in Adamawa State.

Monday, January 5, 2009

Ovia Meets With EFCC Chairman, Justice Minister

Managing Director of Zenith Bank Plc, Jim Ovia was in Abuja yesterday where he met with the Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), Farida Waziri and the Attorney General and Minister of Justice, Michael Aondokaa.
An official of Zenith Bank who confirmed Ovia's visit, however said it was voluntary. Reports say the EFCC actually arrested Ovia and took him to Abuja.
Ovia's meetings with Waziri and Aondoakaa were related to the investigation of the EFCC into the 3.6billion mysterious withdrawal from the account of the Rivers State government lodged with the Bank.
Three officials of Zenith, including the Branch Manager, the Head of Operation, and the Relationship Manager of the account in the branch the withdrawals were made have also been arrested by the EFCC as part of the investigations.

EFCC probes Zenith Bank over Rivers State's missing N3.6bn

EFCC probes Zenith Bank over Rivers State's missing N3.6bn

The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) is interrogating some officials of Zenith Bank Plc as part of its investigations into the withdrawal of N3.6billion from an account belonging to the Rivers State Government and domiciled with the bank.

A man, whose name was given as Harrison B. A. Princewill, but whose identity is not yet known, is said to have made the withdrawals in about 10 instalments this year.

The development, 9janext learnt, is generating disquiet in the banking industry.

Sources within the EFCC said the bank did not notify the anti-graft body and the Central Bank of Nigeria of the transactions and has not been able to provide details of the real identity of Mr. Princewill.

The Bank is also said not to have been able to explain the nature of its transactions with Mr. Princewill to investigators and was alleged to have failed to file a Suspicious Transaction Report on his withdrawals to the Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit (NFIU) of the EFCC, as required by law.

The account, number 6010916587, has been domiciled with the bank since 2004; but the unknown customer, believed by investigators to be an official of the Rivers State Government operating under a pseudonym, made the huge withdrawals this year.

The CBN had in November 28 2001 circular directed all banks to refer all complex and unusually large transactions to the EFCC.

The CBN had circularised a Know Your Customer manual to the banks, directing them to take every measure to always ascertain the identities of those who do business with them.

Investigations into the withdrawals, which led to the arrest of some officials of the Rivers State government, including the Governor's Chief of Staff, Nyeson Wike, triggered the resignation of the Director of the Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit, Ashishana Okauru, from office.

Sources quoted the interim report of the investigations as having declared that Mr.Princewill could not be found. Investigators were also said to have insinuated that a top government official might have used the name to siphon public funds.

Chairman of the EFCC, Farida Waziri, had on October 10, 2008, queried Mr. Okauru over Zenith Bank's claim that it filed a suspicious transaction report to the NFIU regarding Mr. Princewill's withdrawals from the account. Ms. Waziri said: "In the course of investigating how Rivers State Government funds were moved through Zenith Bank Plc, Zenith Bank claimed to have filed reports of the movement of these funds with the NFIU and it is surprising that the NFIU did not flag or alert the operations department about the massive movement of funds. Consequently, I will require your explanation on why the NFIU neglected to place an alert with the operations department on the above fund."

But Mr. Okauru, in his reply to the query, said the bank did not submit any STR to his organisation regarding the movement of the controversial funds.